The second leg of the 2024/25 UEFA Champions League Round of 16 between Atletico Madrid (Spain) and Real Madrid (Spain) will take place on March 12 at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano Stadium. The score from the first match was 2-1 in favor of Real Madrid. Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Atletico Madrid
Diego Simeone's side, despite losing the first leg 1-2, still have a good chance to progress in the Champions League. To do so, they need to defeat their city rivals at home by at least two goals. If Atletico wins by exactly one goal, extra time will be played. It's worth noting that the defeat ended a five-match winning streak for the Madrid side in this tournament. Additionally, the club has reached the Champions League quarter-finals in the last three seasons.
- The club has an uncompromising streak in regular time in this European competition, with 16 matches (11 wins and 5 losses).
- Both teams scored in 6 of Atletico's last 7 Champions League matches.
- At least three goals have been scored in 12 of Atletico's previous matches in this tournament.
Predicted lineup for Atletico Madrid (4-4-2)
Jan Oblak – Nahuel Molina, Axel Witsel, Jose Maria Gimenez, Robin Le Normand – Marcos Llorente, Rodrigo De Paul, Giuliano Simeone, Samuel Lino – Antoine Griezmann, Julian Alvarez.
Midfielder Koke and defender Clement Lenglet, who were doubtful for the second leg, have returned to the main group and are preparing to participate in the match.
Real Madrid
After defeating their opponent in the first leg, the club extended their winning streak in this tournament to six matches. To advance to the next stage of the European competition, Carlo Ancelotti's side only need to avoid defeat in the second leg. Interestingly, Real has only once advanced to the next stage of the Champions League playoffs after winning the first leg by a one-goal margin at the Santiago Bernabeu. It's also worth noting that the Madrid team has qualified for the quarter-finals of this European competition in the last four seasons.
- At least three goals were scored in Real's last six Champions League matches.
- Both teams scored in 7 of the club's previous 9 matches in this tournament.
- The Madrid side scored two or more goals in their last six matches in this European competition.
Predicted lineup for Real Madrid (4-3-3)
Thibaut Courtois – Ferland Mendy, Antonio Rudiger, Raul Asencio, Federico Valverde – Eduardo Camavinga, Aurelien Tchouameni, Lucas Vazquez – Vinicius Junior, Rodrygo Goes, Kylian Mbappe.
Due to injuries, defenders Jesus Vallejo, Eder Militao, and Dani Carvajal, as well as midfielder Dani Ceballos, are out of the game. Midfielder Brahim Diaz's participation is doubtful due to a virus.
Referee
Szymon Marciniak (Poland)
Matches – 7 (International matches, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 22;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.1;
Red cards shown – 1;
Average fouls per match – 22;
Penalties – 29%.
Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid: Match Prediction
Both teams deserve to progress, but only one Madrid club will advance to the quarter-finals. In my opinion, it will be Real. Notably, Carlo Ancelotti has eliminated Diego Simeone in knockout ties five times – more than any other coach in the world (in 2014 – in the Copa del Rey semi-finals and the Champions League final, in 2015 – in the Champions League quarter-finals, in 2023 – in the Copa del Rey quarter-finals, and last year – in the Spanish Super Cup semi-finals).
Let's also look at the official head-to-head statistics between these opponents. In the last 22 official encounters, Atletico has won only twice. In the other matches, Real has secured six victories, and 14 times the result was a draw. Given the dominance of draws in the Madrid derby, I predict that the second leg of the Round of 16 will also end in a draw, which would favor the visitors. However, I won't bet on a draw. Based on Real's better performance in the first match, I suggest predicting that Carlo Ancelotti's side will not lose after 90 minutes.
My prediction – "Real Madrid to win or draw"
